Leading online sportsbook Pinnacle Sports publishes Pinnacle Pulse Issue 71 - understanding run lines when betting baseball.
Willemstad, Curacao (PRWEB) July 27, 2007 -- The Pinnacle Sports book is proud to announce the release of the latest installment of the Next Level by Locke.
Although many bettors only bet the money-line when betting baseball, betting the run-line (also known as the handicap) can offer better value in some cases. The key to success with run-lines is being able to make the proper conversion to a money-line equivalent in order to find the best value.
Some basic statistics: In baseball, the home team wins by one run about 17% of the time, and the road team wins by one run a little over 10% of the time. This disparity is due to the fact that in the bottom of the ninth or later inning, the game is immediately over when the home team is ahead by one run. This turns a lot of games into one-run wins, which effectively makes that one run extremely valuable. That run gains even more value when the total is low, which makes it much harder to win by more than one run. Conversely, that run is less valuable for high totals. The value of the run also varies slightly depending on the money-line for the game.
Do other factors count? For some time, great baseball betting minds at leading Internet betting company, PinnacleSports.com have been debating whether other factors can impact on these probabilities. Common sense suggests that a strong closer would increase the chance, while a poor bullpen would have the opposite effect. Similarly, teams with power and a tendency to put up crooked numbers would blow out more than their normal share of opponents, while teams that focus on small ball would sacrifice blowouts to get the runs that matter.
'Sabermetricians' argue that all that matters is runs scored and runs prevented; they contend that teams that excels at winning close games are a myth, or even one that tends to wind up in more of them than usual. On the other hand, old school baseball guys talk about the pressure of hitting and pitching in the clutch, and how some teams can get the job done while others don't.
Most of the time though, the runline market at PinnacleSports.com thinks the sabermetricians are right; beyond a certain point, there will usually be bettors happy to correct it on the theory that any potential abnormalities are small enough to not be worth worrying about. Yet, there's no doubt that while they are likely small, such effects do exist. And all things being equal, it's worth your while to take advantage of them.
Key advice:
Study run-lines: Get a sense of how run-lines are priced by studying one day's worth of PinnacleSports.com's lines. This will give you a handle on how run-line prices change as a function of the game money-line and total. Our bettors will do the work for you - they sharpen our lines, and you can use those sharp lines to sharpen your own tactics.
Comparison Shopping: Expand the range of market choices by comparison shopping both run-lines and money-lines at a number of online sports books. This will substantially improve your expectations. A sharp baseball bettor can find ways to capitalize on any form of handicapping that is even slightly better than random.
Focus on Value: The Pinnacle Sports betting lines offer low commission betting markets with odds worth up to 50% better value than other online sportsbooks. This makes the Pinnacle Sportsbook's run-lines a worthwhile way to bet. With betting favourites on run-lines often being in the -160 range (bet $160 to win $100) or even higher, the effective commission charged will frequently tend to be lower than the money-line equivalent. (Use the multi-way calculator at PinnacleSports.com to carry out juice calculations.) Because the low juice both allows and forces PinnacleSports.com to refine its run-lines, one can often take advantage of the so-call "Pinnacle lean". If someone is offering a better price than PinnacleSports.com, there's a good chance value is there, if you like the team.
Betting Soccer Micro-league at PinnacleSports.com
If this information on betting baseball run lines has given some fresh and interesting insight, take a look at the Inside Line on 'Betting Soccer Micro-leagues' for further opportunities to improve your betting strategy for online betting. Though most of Europe's biggest leagues take a summer break, one look at the Internet betting menus at leading online sportsbook Pinnacle Sports, will show you that in addition to major tournaments like the Copa America, the 'beautiful game' is underway in most of Northern Europe and South America.
Although many of these leagues lack the big name players to capture the imagination of the general betting public, to ignore the so-called micro-leagues, is to miss out on a lot of potential betting value on football. Combine the low margin prices at the Pinnacle Sportsbook with the fact that many leagues are untouched markets and the potential for profit shines through.
When the Pinnacle Sports betting lines are first opened, the limits are too small for the professionals to bet, so the early betting action comes from recreational players. This is a huge benefit. With small limits on leagues not widely covered in the mainstream press, any research conducted means a player can gain an edge.
Just look at the local league table, examine how strong the teams are, how many goals they score at home and away, and then look at the odds posted for upcoming games to see if anything stands out. Without professionals betting early, the games are likely to feature soft lines, which will help profitability in the long-term.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
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With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
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